The Upcoming October Surprise

Last night I was half-listening to McCain's acceptance speech when he started talking about the people of Georgia. No, he wasn't appealing for their 15 electoral college votes. He was pledging support for the people of the former Soviet republic, recently under attack from Russia. My first reaction was "why the hell is he saying that?" The American people are seriously concerned about the huge increase in peopling not being able to pay their mortgages, increasing unemployment, overwhelming budget deficits, an unending unnecessary war in Iraq, and the daunting threat of global warming. So why then is McCain talking about a country many Americans have never heard of, and most of them couldn't spell its capitol city if spotted the "Tb?"

Then I remembered the current trip by Darth Cheney to the region. The Vice President of the United States is pledging U.S. military support for the region, without Congressional involvement as required by that quaint document, the U.S. Constitution. This monumental commitment of U.S. armed forces has gone largely unreported by the media. His personal appearance at countries in the region is no doubt to put in motion events that one cannot put on paper or email, for fear of future historians.

I believe that in mid- to late- October, one of the countries in the region (Ukraine is my best guess) will announce itself "attacked" by Russia. Like the gulf of Tonkin attacks, Poland's "attacks" on Germany in 1939, and Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction, the evidence of the attacks will elude future historians. But the compliant MSM will reprint administration press releases such as "Administration sources said that Russian troops crossed the border this morning and disconnected baby incubators in the hospital in....." John McCain will just happen to have a hard-hitting, agressive anti-Russian speech prepared to deliver, announcing the imminent threat to U.S. interests (never mind what those might be, look at that shiny ball over there) and his determination to kick Russian butt and not appease them like those cowardly Democrats will.

You might be thinking, Why not fake a threat in Iran as an October surprise? First, these are Cold Warriers, pining for a fight with the U.S.S.R, and when you lie, a lying about something you know about is much more believable. Secondly, most Americans have "Middle East" fatigue and the administration has no doubt run plenty of focus groups showing that the public is not eager to commit forces to yet another middle eastern country. More fear can be generated by an agressive Russia and headlines screaming about a threat to Georgia. War is, remember, god's way of teaching geography to Americans.